Sunday, April 18, 2010

Paid Experts

I just checked weather for tomorrow.  Now mind you, we are talking of weather only 24 hours in advance, so we aren't talking about a great leap of meteorological magic...
The results:
Tomorrow it will be a cloudy 59 degrees (According to Accuweather)
Tomorrow it will be a partly sunny 55 degrees (According to WNEP 7 day forecast)
Tomorrow it will be partly cloudy 71 degrees (According to

How is all this possible?  Aren't these folks the "experts?" There difference of 16 degrees tomorrow. It will either be mostly sunny or cloudy.

Just like the rest of the world...even the experts, paid to predict based on their knowledge, cannot agree what it will be like in 24 hours.  This is true of weathermen, Investment bankers, security experts, business consultants and a whole range of  paid "experts."  Yet we continually look to these folks with the mistaken belief that their information can make problems go away.

I am a firm believer in education, and research.  But it is still important to gather information, and then use the common sense you were given to base your decisions.  Do not rely on "experts" to make your decisions, they are for you to make.

I ran into a T-shirt in a magazine yesterday.  It said in essence:  Trust your instincts.  The Arc was built by novices, the Titanic by experts.

UPDATE:  The weather turned out to be sunny, 66 degrees.  They were all wrong.

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